Israeli soldiers patrol at the cease-fire line with Syria, near the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights village of Majdal Shams, on Tuesday. Photo by Atef Safadi/EPA
Syria, which experienced a renewed wave of sectarian violence last week targeting the predominantly Druze southern province, remains far from achieving genuine national reconciliation, a meaningful political settlement and unity, analysts said.
Syria’s new leader, Ahmad Sharaa, a former Jihadist, has gradually gained Arab and international support since he ascended to power after toppling President Bashar Assad in December.
But the most significant shift came from the United States, when President Trump met with him in Saudi Arabia in May and announced the lifting of sanctions that had been imposed during Assad’s rule.
Trump decided to give Sharaa a chance on the basis that a stable Syria is crucial to peace and security in the Middle East.
Despite organizing a national dialogue conference to discuss the future of the war-torn country, signing an interim constitution that establishes a five-year transition period, forming a transitional government and beginning to attract much-needed investment, the new Syrian leader still does not appear to be fully in control.
The widespread sectarian violence that erupted last week in the southern province of Sweida revealed the limits of his centralized authority and of his efforts to assert control and sovereignty over the country.
It also once again brought to the forefront the issue of protecting minorities and the urgent need to rein in the most extremist Islamist groups and Jihadists operating within Sharaa’s security forces, who continue to act as sectarian rebels.
Sharaa has so far failed to absorb all armed factions into a national army, address the presence of foreign fighters still in control of several areas and persuade key minority groups to lay down their weapons.
Fears and mistrust, initially sparked by sectarian violence against Alawites in Syria’s coastal region last March, resurfaced strongly when clashes broke out July 12 between Druze fighters and Sunni Bedouin groups in Sweida, a predominantly Druze city in southern Syria.
The situation took a dramatic turn when government security forces, dispatched from Damascus to restore order, were confronted by Druze fighters — backed by their spiritual leader, Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri — who sought to block their advance into the city, accusing them of siding with the Bedouins.
The two sides engaged in heavy fighting for more than a week, during which incidents of looting, arson, sectarian abuse and summary executions — primarily by government forces — were reported. Bedouin and Druze armed groups were also implicated in serious abuses, according to Human Rights Watch.
The international non-governmental organization warned that the violence had fueled sectarian hate speech and heightened the risk of reprisals against Druze communities across the country, amid accusations of complicity with al-Hijri’s fighters and support for the Israeli intervention.
The U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights documented the killing of 1,386 people from all sides, including 386 civilians, 238 of whom were “summarily executed by government forces.”
At the height of the fighting, Israel intervened to protect the Druze, launching airstrikes on the Syrian Defense Ministry in Damascus and on military positions in and around Sweida. The attacks forced government troops to withdraw from the city to avoid what Sharaa reportedly described as “an open war.”
According to Nanar Hawach, a senior Syria analyst at the International Crisis Group, the conflict in Sweida began as a local intercommunal dispute, but “snowballed into a regional conflict.”
Hawach explained that the government saw an opportunity to assert control over the semi-autonomous region and acted on it, encouraged by U.S. “confidence-building signals” and ongoing talks with Israel.
“However, they overplayed their hand, and it backfired on them, weakening the government on multiple levels,” he said in an interview with UPI. “One of the main reasons it escalated so dramatically was the government’s approach and its overreliance on the use of force.”
This time, it was clear that the confrontation in Sweida was not directly linked to the long-standing rivalry between the Druze -a minority group in Syria- and the Bedouins.
Rather, it was essentially an attempt by Sharaa to “subjugate the Druze,” some of whom had refused to disarm and integrate into the new state, said Makram Rabah, a political activist and history professor at the American University of Beirut.
“They [the Druze] simply did not like the heavy-handed approach that Sharaa and his Islamist allies were using,” Rabah, a Lebanese Druze, told UPI.
Did Sharaa miscalculate or fall into a trap when he hastily sent his security forces to take control of the semi-autonomous province?
He not only miscalculated, but also believed he could get away with it, only to find out he couldn’t, Rabah said, adding that “He had some form of support … but not support to carry out massacres or kill civilians.”
As a result, Hijri — one of Sweida’s three religious leaders — became increasingly popular among the Druze for echoing their existential fears and for openly seeking Israel’s protection.
The Druze were left with few options, argued Anas Joudeh, a Damascus-based political researcher and founder of the Nation Building Movement in Syria. “They are unable to accept what happened … [and] under the present circumstances, no one would hand over his weapons.”
Believing that Israel, which acts in its own interests, could protect them was wrong, Joudeh and other analysts said.
One person who understood this well was Lebanon’s Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, who called for restraint and a political resolution to the Sweida crisis, warning that it could become protracted and risk triggering sectarian partition.
Sharaa’s desire and efforts to consolidate the state, establish a monopoly on weapons and reunify the war-torn country are fully understandable. The problem lies in how these goals are being implemented, Joudeh explained.
“It is impossible to reunify the country under such an authority,” he told UPI in a telephone interview from Damascus.
Observers noted that Sharaa still enjoys considerable support from Sunni and other communities, who aspire to rebuild Syria as one nation for all after suffering decades of brutal rule under the Assad family.
Hawach, however, cautioned that unless the government changes its policies and adopts more inclusive, peace-building approaches — along with “a very clear message” that it represents all segments of the population- “short-term projections are not very positive in Syria.”
He warned that, without such changes, Syria’s various constituencies would be further encouraged to seek access to arms and potential foreign backing, which could “create a highly hostile and divided environment.”
While Washington reiterated its support for the new Syrian government and criticized Israel’s intervention in Sweida, Sharaa received a significant boost Thursday when Saudi Arabia announced $6.4 billion in investments to help rebuild the country after a 14-year civil war.
Sharaa has not only been given another chance, but also a real opportunity to lead Syria toward stability, if he succeeds in stopping the sectarian killings, addressing the fears of minorities, punishing those responsible and purging his ranks of extremist jihadists.
The question remains whether he can meet this challenge.
