Though Uruguay leads the trend, population aging is accelerating across Latin America. File Photo by Raúl Martínez/EPA
Uruguay is experiencing one of the most significant demographic transformations in Latin America, driven by a declining birthrate and an aging population.
According to projections from the National Institute of Statistics, the country’s total fertility rate dropped to 1.27 children per woman in 2023 and is expected to fall to 1.20 by the end of this year — well below the replacement-level threshold of 2.1.
The population, which peaked at 3.51 million people in 2020, is projected to decline steadily, falling to some 3 million by 2070. By then, more than 32% of residents will be over 65, while only 11.5% will be under 15.
Though Uruguay leads the trend, population aging is accelerating across Latin America.
While the region is not the oldest in absolute terms — Europe and East Asia have higher shares of older adults — it is aging faster than anywhere else in the world.
According to the United Nations Population Division, Latin America will make the demographic shift from a young to an aging society in less than 40 years — a transition that took Europe more than a century.
In countries such as Chile, Brazil and Argentina, more than 15% of the population is now over the age of 65, and the median age exceeds 32, reflecting a rapid demographic shift.
This shift coincides with a long-term drop in fertility, now averaging 1.8 children per woman. The decline is linked to a range of factors: improved access to education, increased female labor force participation, urbanization and evolving family values.
One particularly significant factor has been the decline in teenage pregnancies, which for years accounted for a substantial share of total births in several countries. In Latin America, fertility among women ages 15 to 19 remained high even as it declined in other age groups — but over the past decade, it has dropped sharply.
Helena Cruz Castanheira, a demographer at the Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Center of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, said the decline happened faster than expected.
“We expected the fertility rate to stabilize around the replacement level — 2.1 children per woman — by 2020, but overall fertility continued to fall below that threshold, and one reason was the significant drop in births among teenagers,” she said.
Uruguay again offers a clear example: between 2016 and 2018, access to free subdermal contraceptive implants accounted for one-third of the decline in teen fertility.
This trend is playing out in other countries, as well. In Colombia, for example, 2024 saw the lowest number of births ever recorded — 445,011 — of which only 3,159 were to teenage mothers.
Although the average age of first sexual activity has remained stable — or even declined — in some countries, what has changed is increased access to and use of contraceptives, partly due to public policies focused on sexual and reproductive health.
Still, Latin America and the Caribbean continue to have the second-highest rate of teenage fertility in the world, with 52 births per 1,000 women ages 15 to 19 in 2022, compared with the global average of 39.
Each year, more than 1.6 million girls and teens in Latin America become mothers — many of them victims of sexual abuse and living in poverty and vulnerable conditions. This reality limits their access to education and employment and reinforces intergenerational inequality.
Cruz emphasized that the goal of demographic policy should be to ensure women can have the number of children they want, when they choose to.
“Unplanned teenage pregnancies are associated with more difficult life paths for young mothers. That’s why countries must continue investing in sexual health, family planning and education,” she said.
According to a report from Austral University in Argentina, only Ecuador, Paraguay, Mexico and Peru currently show a more favorable outlook, with a larger share of youth under 15 — suggesting greater long-term productive potential.
By contrast, the population age 65 and older has grown steadily across the region, reaching or surpassing 15% in several countries. This trend is reflected in indicators such as median age, which now exceeds 30 in most nations. Uruguay, Chile, Brazil and Argentina report the highest figures.
As the population ages, there are fewer working-age people for each retiree.
Uruguay offers a clear warning: aging is happening faster than expected. Without adjustments to social, health, pension and elder care policies, the economic and social consequences could be severe.
