1 of 2 | Mexico’s presidential candidate Claudia Sheinbaum reacts during a press conference after the general elections in Mexico City in June. She was elected Mexico’s first female president. EPA-EFE/Jose Mendez
Officials in Mexico and across Latina America are anxiously watching the outcome of Tuesday’s U.S. Presidential contest in light of GOP candidate Donald Trump’s campaign promise to “deport 11 million criminal aliens” if he is elected.
While considering the implications of a Trump presidency, Mexicans are also trying to navigate how a new U.S president will work with newly elected Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum, her term just a month old. Advertisement
“It’s important to remember that many Mexicans have family on both sides of the border and, as a result, are very impacted by U.S.-Mexico relations,” wrote Travis Bembenek, the CEO of Mexico News Daily and who has been living and working in Mexico for over 27 years..
Trump has been sounding the alarm over illegal immigration during his bid for the White House, claiming that migrants are “poisoning the blood of our country,” he said at a rally in New Hampshire, a piece of divisive campaign rhetoric that he has repeated with increased vitriol without the facts to back it up. Advertisement
Trump has said, and his running mate JD Vance has echoed his claims, “criminal aliens are pouring across the border,” despite Customers and Border Protection data that show apprehensions are at an all time low during the administration of President Joe Biden. They are close to numbers seen during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, when migration crawled to a near stop.
Illegal border crossings spiked to record levels under President Joe Biden, averaging 2 million per year from 2021 to 2023. The migrants arrived in every state in the country, overwhelming cities such as New York, Chicago and Denver as newcomers seek shelter and aid.
Illegal crossings at the southern border spiked to 250,000 in December 2023, but dropped earlier this year, mainly due to efforts by Mexico to slow U.S.-bound migrants.
The upturn was largely driven by the expiration of Proclamation 10014 in 2022, which suspended the entry of certain migrants into the U-S because of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
But the numbers dropped after Biden invoked sweeping presidential powers to sharply limit asylum in early June. Since then, migrant crossings have plateaued.
The Biden administration was forced to tighten its border policy and numbers have now reached levels close to what they were during the pandemic. Advertisement
With regard to this year’s election, some analysts have warned of a spike in illegal migration if Trump wins the race, scurrying to get into the country before he takes office in January and tightens border policy and begins his threatened mass deportations.
Despite Trump’s harsh rhetoric on illegal immigration generally and about Mexico in particular, Bembenek is not clear on whether Trump or the Democratic nominee Kamala Harris will be the best president as far as Mexico is concerned, largely because of the important but often dicey trade relationship between the two countries.
“Former President Trump by far has had the most vocal comments about what he would do with tariffs with Mexico,” Bembenek wrote.” As a result, many think he would be “bad for Mexico.” But the current USMCA agreement, which has undeniably been good for the country and allowed Mexico to steadily increase exports to the point of now being the No. 1 exporter to the United States, was signed during the Trump administration.”
Harris voted against that deal, Bembenek said, which does not bode well for future trade agreements under the USMCA with her as president. Bembenek admitted that Trump will be harder on China with tariffs than with Mexico, which would benefit Mexico. Harris, on the other hand, may not be as hard on China, circumstances that could benefit Mexico. Advertisement
“As much as I would like to provide a clear answer, it’s really not obvious yet which candidate would be better for Mexico. There are still too many unknowns,” Bembenek wrote.
