Figures suggest election will be decided in an October runoff.
With fewer than 45 days until Bolivia’s presidential election, politician and businessman Samuel Doria Medina (C) , leader of Unidad Nacional, a center-left social democratic party, is leading the polls with 19.6% support. File Photo by Gabriel Márquez/EPA-EFE
With fewer than 45 days until Bolivia’s presidential election, businessman Samuel Doria Medina — leader of Unidad Nacional, a center-left social democratic party — is leading the polls with 19.6% support.
According to the latest survey by Captura Consulting, released by the Cadena A television network, former President Jorge Quiroga, a center-right candidate, is in second place with 16.6%, followed by Andrónico Rodríguez, a rising figure in the Bolivian left, with 13.7%.
A June poll by Ipsos CIESMOR showed similar results, reinforcing the trend that opposition candidates Doria Medina and Quiroga have pushed ruling party candidates out of the top spots. Still, 15.5% of voters remain undecided, adding uncertainty to the final outcome.
“Although a poll is a snapshot of the moment and will shift over time, the trends are clear,” political analyst José Luis Santistevan said.
He said voters appear to be turning away from the ruling party amid a worsening economic crisis that has affected jobs, food access and household income across Bolivia.
Bolivia is in the midst of a severe economic crisis, driven by rising prices for basic goods, fuel shortages and a lack of foreign currency. The crisis has intensified social tensions nationwide.
Infighting on the left has weakened the ruling party’s standing. Former President Evo Morales, current President Luis Arce and President of the Senate Andrónico Rodríguez have publicly clashed, eroding support for the political movement that has governed Bolivia since Morales first won the presidency in 2005 with 53.7% of the vote.
The latest polling suggests no candidate is likely to win outright in the first round on Aug. 17, political analyst Reymi Ferreira said. He added that Doria Medina and Quiroga are likely to face each other in a runoff Oct. 20.
Since the Constitutional Court disqualified former President Evo Morales from running — citing constitutional term limits — his supporters have launched blockades and protests across several regions, threatening national stability and the election itself.
Despite the unrest, the vote remains scheduled for August 17, with an estimated 7.5 million Bolivians expected to go to the polls.
