Though U.S. coast won’t see a direct hit, the risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents across western Atlantic basin next week is increasing.
Tropical Storm Erin is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday and a major one by Sunday. Image courtesy of NOAA
Tropical Storm Erin is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday as it continues to move west over the central tropical Atlantic with a chance of ultimately affecting the U.S. East Coast, the Bahamas and Bermuda next week, the National Hurricane Center said early Thursday.
Erin, which became a tropical storm on Monday morning, was located about 990 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands and was moving rapidly west at 17 mph, the NHC said in its 5 a.m. AST update.
It was packing 50 mph sustained maximum winds, which it had maintained throughout Wednesday night.
Forecasters predict that Erin will become a hurricane by Friday and a major hurricane within three days, defined as having maximum sustained winds of between 111 and 129 mph, making it a Category 3 storm.
It would be the first hurricane of the Atlantic season. Beryl was the first hurricane of last year on June 24.
In the latest discussion, the NHC said there is a “greater-than-normal uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the East Coast of the United States and Bermuda in the long range.”
But it said: “The risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the western Atlantic basin next week is increasing.”
“This is an opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place,” it said.
By this weekend, swells are forecast to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, the NHC said.
Alex Sosnowsky, an AccuWeather senior forecaster, said there is concern that residents, visitors, cruise lines, and shipping and fishing ventures “could pass paths with a powerful hurricane.”
With a track farther to the east, Bermuda could be directly in the path as a major hurricane.
He said a farther west scenario would mean a greater risk of strong winds, rain and coastal flooding in the United States, including eastern North Carolina, Long Island, N.Y., and southeastern New England.
“Families heading to U.S. Atlantic beaches for a late-summer vacation next week need to be extremely cautious when venturing into the surf,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “More than 50 people have lost their lives to rip currents and rough surf at beaches across the country so far this year, without any major hurricane nearby.”
There are no warnings or coastal watches in effect as tropical-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles. But those in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should monitor Erin’s progress.
The previous four named Atlantic storms this year were Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter. None of them became hurricanes, and Chantal was the only one to make landfall in the United States, causing significant flooding in North Carolina.
Helene struck that state last year as a tropical storm, causing an estimated $53 billion in damage, after hitting western Florida as a Category 4 hurricane.
Four other hurricanes made landfall in the United States in 2024: Beryl, Debby, Francine and Milton.
