Pablo Quirno, the finance secretary of Argentina, speaks at a G-24 press briefing at the 2025 International Monetary Fund and World Bank Annual Meetings at IMF headquarters in Washington in October. Argentina ows %55 billion to the IMF. File Photo by Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA
Argentina must pay more than $10 billion in external debt during the first half of 2026 — an obligation that puts heavy pressure on the country’s finances as its total debt exceeds $300 billion, according to official figures.
Most of Argentina’s external debt is concentrated in two major groups of creditors. One is the International Monetary Fund, to which the country owes about $55 billion. The other is international financial markets, with U.S. investment funds holding most of the bonds issued between 2016 and 2017 and restructured in 2020.
According to estimates from Argentine consulting firms, gross maturities for that period will total about $10.75 billion.
In January, President Javier Milei’s administration must cover $4.3 billion in maturities on government bonds issued under both local and foreign legislation. The government is also expected to pay roughly $1.6 billion in interest to the IMF and about $2.5 billion in other bond obligations.
Most of the remaining commitments are debts owed to international organizations, a situation that will continue to strain Argentina’s public finances at the start of next year.
“Argentina has been experiencing a debt crisis for about eight years, a phenomenon that is difficult to separate from its macroeconomic challenges,” Pablo Moldovan, director of C-P Consultora and former undersecretary of Economic Development, told UPI.
He said the debt originated with the financial rescue package agreed to in 2018 under President Mauricio Macri with support from the Trump administration, and that it rose again in 2025 with a new aid package during Milei’s presidency.
The economist said the government’s strategy for meeting the upcoming payments centers on returning to the markets to attract private investment. However, the success of that effort depends on external factors and a significant drop in the country’s risk rating, whose current level limits access to financing.
Economist Guido Agostinelli told UPI that Argentina’s current level of external debt is unprecedented and said the government is relying on a range of strategies to meet its 2026 debt maturities.
He said that in the short term, the main option would be a loan of about $5 billion from international banks to cover the January payment.
During a recent event at the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, Economy Minister Luis Caputo outlined a range of possible alternatives for paying the more than $20 billion in debt coming due in 2026, confirming that the government lacks both the dollars and a secured financing path.
He said he will present a plan in the coming days with measures to cover the upcoming payments, which could involve the currency swap with China, support from the U.S. Treasury and additional negotiations with global banks.
Although there is no clarity in Argentina about how the swap of up to $20 billion agreed with the U.S. Treasury will operate, data published by Argentina’s Central Bank confirmed that the government activated an initial $2.5 billion of the swap in October, just days before the legislative elections.
The situation is different when it comes to the bank loan. According to reporting by The Wall Street Journal, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup shelved a $20 billion loan for Argentina and replaced it with a smaller, short-term one.
In a message on X on Friday, Caputo rejected the idea that the loan suspension was tied to a refusal by those banks and said the pause was a voluntary government decision driven by improved post-election market conditions.
Experts say a drop in the country’s risk rating would make it easier to refinance the debt by allowing maturities to be rescheduled through new issuances, a common practice in stronger economies.
The administration is also counting on a trade surplus — driven by energy and agricultural exports — to bring in foreign currency, especially in the second quarter, when the main harvest generates the largest inflow of dollars.
“The situation is complex, but the resources to meet the payments will be there. Argentina’s outlook today is more favorable. That is the general assessment of Argentine and international consultancies and the IMF,” economist Federico Vacarezza of Austral University told UPI.
Economist and national deputy Martín Tetaz said that with the U.S. swap available, Argentina has enough room to meet all scheduled debt payments.
“The backing of President Trump and the Treasury clears any uncertainty. The country’s risk rating has fallen considerably, although it remains high for the level of support Argentina receives from the United States,” Tetaz told UPI
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Violeta Chamorro, NicaraguaPresident-elect of Nicaragua Violeta Chamorro makes victory signs after attending Sunday service in Houston on March 11, 1990. Chamorro was the first woman elected president of Nicaragua and the first female president in the Americas. She led the country from 1990 to 1997 following the end of the Contra War. Photo by George Wong/UPI | License Photo
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