Supporters of Islamic political party Jamat-e-Islami shout anti-Israel slogans during a protest against Israeli airstrikes on Qatar, in Peshawar, Pakistan, on Wednesday. Israel struck Hamas leaders in Doha on Tuesday in its first attack inside Qatar, calling it “Operation Summit of Fire.” Photo by Bilawal Arbab/EPA
Israel’s failed attempt to kill Hamas’ political leadership in unprecedented air strikes on the Qatari capital, Doha, will further complicate the Gaza negotiations and harden the Palestinian militant group’s position, Hamas and analysts said.
The action also could put the Abraham Accords at risk and undermine Gulf countries’ trust in the United States as a reliable ally and security guarantor, they said.
The attack, whether carried out with or without Washington’s approval or knowledge, has moreover heightened fears among the oil-rich Gulf states about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s “Greater Israel” mission and his broader plan to reshape the Middle East — a strategy that further threatens peace and stability in the region.
The Hamas negotiating delegation was meeting in Doha to discuss U.S. President Donald Trump’s new proposal to end the nearly 23-month war in Gaza when Israeli fighter jets and drones struck residential buildings that housed several members of the Hamas Politburo on Tuesday.
Hamas said its negotiators survived the assassination attempts, but five members of the group and one Qatari security official were killed.
Israel initially believed that most of the senior Hamas officials targeted in the strike had died, but soon admitted that the chances of success had significantly diminished.
Regardless of the outcome, the Doha strike was “unprecedented,” as it also constituted an attack on the sovereignty of a country that was mediating and hosting parties to the conflict, according to Riad Kahwaji, who heads the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis.
“You don’t kill the negotiator — and you definitely don’t violate the sovereignty of the country hosting the negotiations. That’s a serious flaw,” Kahwaji told UPI. “It is wrong on so many levels, and it carries serious implications, both now and in the future.”
He said Netanyahu is “completely out of control” in how he has been handling the Gaza war, his plans to annex the West Bank and now the attack on Doha — which Qatari officials, angry and feeling betrayed, described using strong terms such as “aggression,” “barbaric,” and “state terror.” The officials went further, labeling Israel itself a “rogue state.”
Despite being Washington’s major non-NATO ally and hosting al-Udeid — the largest U.S. airbase in the Middle East, with around 11,000 American military personnel — Qatar was not immune to Israel’s reckless and uncontrolled actions.
The United States’ “very vague and last-minute” warning of the strike was of no use to Doha, since it came too late — after the strikes had already begun, raising serious questions about U.S. security guarantees.
“This perceived betrayal, regardless of whether it was intentional or a failure of communication, has raised serious alarms,” said Kristian P. Alexander, a senior fellow and lead researcher at UAE’s Rabdan Security and Defense Institute. “It suggests that the U.S. may not be a reliable partner when its interests in backing Israel clash with its commitments to its Gulf allies.”
Alexander said the U.S. has maintained a massive military presence in the Gulf to deter Iran, but the Israeli attack on Doha raises the possibility that “the next threat to their [Gulf states’] security could come from a supposed U.S. ally.”
“It exposes the U.S.’s delicate balancing act in the Middle East, caught between its unconditional support for Israel and its critical strategic partnerships with countries like Qatar,” he told UPI.
However, the damage is already done. The attack has undermined U.S. credibility, and its role as a security guarantor to the countries of the region “has been tarnished — maybe forever,” Kahwaji said.
The Gulf states, long seen as a “safe haven” insulated from the violence of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, are now forced to confront a new reality.
Alexander said the Doha strike shattered this “safe haven illusion” and demonstrated that these countries are no longer immune and their sovereignty is no longer “a guaranteed shield” against military action.
By advancing a vision of “Greater Israel,” Netanyahu is “confirming their worst fears,” he said, arguing that “this will likely push them to move away from normalization and towards a more cautious, and at times confrontational, stance.”
The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Jordan immediately and strongly rallied behind Qatar, which decided to pursue legal avenues and diplomatic channels to hold Israel internationally accountable for the strike.
More support and joint actions are anticipated at a two-day summit of Arab and Muslim leaders in Doha on Sunday, as they seek to respond to a regional security crisis that has now arrived at their doorstep.
The Gulf leaders, Alexander said, are likely to respond with “a multi-pronged strategy” that balances their condemnation of Israel with their own long-term strategic interests. They would possibly coordinate a common approach to pressuring Israel and the international community.
The first move came from the UAE, which reportedly informed Israel that its defense industries will not be able to participate in a defense conference scheduled for Dubai next month, according to the Israeli news outlet Ynet-English.
Moreover, the Abraham Accords, which led to normalization agreements between Israel and the UAE, Sudan, Bahrain and Morocco, are now at risk. The attack will make it much harder for Gulf countries to continue pursuing normalization with Israel.
Kahwaji said the Doha strike was “another nail in the coffin,” of the U.S.-sponsored agreements, raising the possibility of “being annulled or canceled because of the Israeli actions.”
Hamas, which was the main target, appears to have won this round -and may even have been strengthened- after Israel failed to assassinate its senior political leaders, marking its first such miss since Oct. 7, 2023.
The failed operation further demonstrated, observers said, that Netanyahu was never serious about ending the Gaza war or negotiating a settlement. On the contrary, it reinforced the belief that he has always sought to prolong the conflict and push for the exodus of Gazans from the Strip.
Killing Hamas’s political leadership would not end the war, would not necessarily bring the hostages back and would likely deepen the resistance and prolong the conflict, Alexander stated.
Despite the Gaza negotiations being in a state of deep uncertainty and disarray, a Hamas source in Beirut said the group was ready to continue “reviewing Trump’s proposal” and reengaging in the cease-fire talks. Qatar, too, said it will not drop its mediation efforts.
But any new mediation effort will be extremely difficult and will require restoring diplomatic trust, greater pressure from the United States and strong guarantees to the mediating country to get off the ground. Would the decision to exclude Hamas from any future settlement and from any role in governing Gaza still stand?
According to the Hamas source, the “shortest and easiest path” is to compel Israel to uphold previous agreements that call for a lasting cease-fire, release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, entry of humanitarian aid and the start of Gaza’s reconstruction as conditions to end the war.
The source told UPI that after 706 days of war, Netanyahu has still been unable to achieve his goals, force Hamas to surrender or break its will. Even if Israel succeeds in killing more of its leaders, that will not stop the resistance.
“The battle is not just about Gaza; it’s much bigger,” he said, referring to the “Greater Israel” vision, that aims to seize all of Palestine, as well as parts of Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria and others.
