After Nicolas Maduro’s capture became known, about 58.5% of Venezuelans surveyed by the Citizen Panel at Chile’s University of Development said they could return to their country in the short term if conditions in Venezuela show significant improvement, File Photo by Adriana Thomasa/EPA
Chile’s labor force could shrink by about 3% if a majority of Venezuelan migrants decide to return home after the capture of former President Nicolas Maduro by U.S. military forces, according to a new academic study.
The potential return of Venezuelan migrants would have a direct impact on Chile’s labor market, the Observatory of the Economic Context at Diego Portales University said.
As of the September to November 2025 quarter, an estimated 510,740 Venezuelans were living in Chile, accounting for about 5% of the country’s total labor force. More than 84.5% of them were employed, a sharp increase from 2017, when Venezuelans represented just 0.4% of the labor force.
After Maduro’s capture became known, about 58.5% of Venezuelans surveyed by the Citizen Panel at Chile’s University of Development said they could return to their country in the short term if conditions in Venezuela show significant improvement, which could reduce labor force participation by 3%.
“A reduction in the Venezuelan population over the medium term implies a lower level of [gross domestic product],” Juan Bravo, director of the observatory at Diego Portales University, told UPI. “However, how strongly that impact is felt depends crucially on how gradual the emigration process is.”
If the outflow were rapid, Bravo said, “the economy would have little room for cushioning effects,” such as absorbing labor shortages through underemployed groups or faster economic growth that boosts formal private-sector hiring.
He added that such a scenario is unlikely because “it is not clear that Venezuela will achieve stability and democracy in the short term.” As a result, he said, any return migration is likely to be gradual, allowing mitigating effects that prevent abrupt economic shocks.
The study found that 74.5% of economically active Venezuelans have lived in Chile for five years or more and mostly work as motorcycle couriers, car washers, gas station attendants, hotel receptionists and electronics technicians.
As a result, the first impacts would likely be felt in the service sector, particularly delivery services. With fewer workers available, the study said, wages in those areas could rise to meet higher demand.
“For example, independent delivery workers using app-based platforms could receive higher pay due to greater scarcity and gain access to more clients,” the report said. In occupations that are largely salaried, employers could face labor shortages, potentially allowing unemployed workers to be hired.
The study also pointed to a possible shift toward more formal jobs and improved working conditions to attract workers, which could reduce off-the-books labor and open opportunities for older workers.
“It is key to encourage labor participation among lagging groups,” Bravo said, noting that population aging is accelerating while people age 50 and older face serious barriers to employment.
Women also continue to face a wide labor participation gap compared with men, with participation rates still below those seen in OECD countries, he added.
According to the United Nations refugee agency, more than 7.8 million people have left Venezuela over the past five years due to repression and economic collapse under the Maduro government. About 6.7 million have settled in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Data from the Inter-Agency Coordination Platform for Refugees and Migrants from Venezuela show that by 2024 about 2.8 million Venezuelans had settled in Colombia, more than 1.6 million in Peru, 700,000 in the United States and 600,000 in Brazil.
